Analysis of CSDS Tamil Nadu pre-poll in Indian Express

Today’s Indian Express has the Lokniti-CSDS analysis of the pre-poll conducted in Tamil Nadu. The leading article by Rahul Verma and P. Ramajayam examines the pivotal role of women in Chief Minister Jayalalithaa’s victory. Here’s the key takeaway:

The comparative credibility of leadership seems to have acquired a gender dimension in Tamil Nadu. Women voters delivered a decisive verdict in favour of Jayalalithaa and her party.

While the turnout was 73% for both male and female voters, there were 4 lakh more registered women voters than men. Survey data suggest that women voters rallied behind Jayalalithaa in greater numbers than ever before. The AIADMK led the DMK alliance by 10 percentage points among women voters and, thus, Jayalalithaa’s party drew its votes from the bigger share of the pie. Her party has had an advantage among women voters earlier, but the gap has never been this stark and large.

More women than men found Jayalalithaa a better administrator. They perceived her as caring more for them and for the poor than DMK chief M Karunanidhi. Compared to men, women voters were also less likely to think the AIADMK government was corrupt, the data show; on the other hand, they were more likely to think of Karunandhi as very corrupt. Women voters in comparison to men were more likely to give another chance to the AIADMK. This pattern is replicated across caste, class, and other demographic variables.

Links to all articles below:

On the role of women in Jayalalithaa’s victory by Rahul Verma and P. Ramajayam

On why the DMK fell short by Sam Solomon

On the poor showing of the People’s Welfare Front by Pranav Gupta

On the popularity of prohibition in Kerala and Tamil Nadu by Vibha Attri and Jyoti Mishra

3 thoughts on “Analysis of CSDS Tamil Nadu pre-poll in Indian Express

  1. You mentioned “An alliance with the PMK, which won a larger vote share than the DMK’s losing margin in 51 constituencies, might have produced such an outcome, as would have an alliance with the DMDK.”

    You have not understood the fact an alliance with PMK has benefited only the PMK and not other parties (Find out why?)

    The alliance with the DMDK would have made the DMK to contest only 115 seats, thereby would have not benefited the DMK. I wrote an article on the same and it will be published in one of the newspaper in this week.

    You have to go a long way in understanding the physics, chemistry, biology, history and geography of alliance arithmetic.



    1. Ramakrishnan,

      Thank you for your comment. Perhaps you could explain why alliances with the PMK have disproportionately benefitted the party, or why it would not have been worth DMK’s while to contest fewer seats in order to bring the DMDK into an alliance. As you say, I have a long way to go in understanding the dynamics of alliances and appreciate your feedback. Please post a link to your article when it is published.



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