Analysis of CSDS Kerala pre-poll in Indian Express

Today’s Indian Express has the Lokniti-CSDS analysis of the pre-poll conducted in Kerala. The headline article by Rahul Verma, Pranav Gupta, and Nitin Mehta examines the reasons for the BJP’s emergence in Kerala. Here’s they key takeaway:

…the BJP is cutting into the support base of both coalitions [LDF and UDF]. The upper-caste Nairs have remained the nucleus of BJP’s social coalition in Kerala and the party in this election received more votes among this section than the UDF. The BJP’s alliance with SNDP (a social organisation of Ezhavas), however, has not resulted in the desired effects. The Ezhavas are a numerically dominant backward-caste community and represent almost half of the state’s Hindu population. The BJP’s support among the community increased by merely five percentage points in comparison to the Lok Sabha election. Even among the Ezhavas, who reported to be associated with the SNDP, the NDA was far behind the two alliances.

The BJP’s vote share among the Dalits has increased significantly in this election. In fact, the BJP and the UDF won equally among the Dalits, who have historically remained aligned with the LDF. The survey data also suggests that the BJP has succeeded in winning a small segment of Christian voters. Does this development indicate a formation of a new social coalition in Kerala? Can Rajagopal replicate BJP’s Goa model where Manohar Parikkar built a coalition around upper-caste Hindus and Christians? Will the BJP succeed in making further inroads in Kerala?

In the past, the BJP’s success in new frontiers like Karnataka, Haryana, Jammu and most recently in Assam is in large part due to the en-masse transfer of a regional party’s support base. The prospect of this option looks bleak in Kerala and thus the BJP needs to prepare for another round of struggle in the state. The party’s vote share is still a few percentage points below the threshold point beyond which it could start making substantial gains in terms of seats.

Links to all articles below:

On the BJP’s emergence in Kerala by Rahul Verma, Pranav Gupta, and Nitin Mehta

On why the LDF win was unlike previous elections by Sandeep Shastri and KM Sajad Ibrahim

On the nuanced perspective of leftist voters by Hilal Ahmed

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